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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still